Here's a look at how history can predict the future. It's not true that "nobody" ever sees it coming. Somebody always does. The problem is that the people who can't see the obvious ignore the ones who can. By obvious, I don't mean that an individual situation looks obvious; it's often obscure. I mean that the pattern is obvious, because human history contains many cycles, which makes it very predictable in certain ways. So when you have studied history and you know the patterns of it, and you start seeing the early moves of a cycle, you know with pretty high accuracy what is going to come next. If you are a sane person, you will try warning others, and they will either ignore you or punish you.