My thoughts? It'll be the same as whatever the historic equivalent was for that use-level of transportation. If slow and costly, expect valuable things that are difficult or impossible to produce locally. Spices, silk, gems, and artwork were all traded insanely long distances -- along with expert personnel. If transport moves faster and/or cheaper for some reason (say, wormholes or hyperspace) then we can begin to add bulkier commodities in approximate order of demand/difficulty. Since we live in the information age now, we should also count information as something to be traded, although it usually doesn't have to be shipped in hardcopy.
If people can move at all, then they will ship and trade things.
Re: Hmm...
February 7 2011, 11:21:03 UTC 10 years ago
One of the interesting things I ran across in looking up stuff for that reply was the time experienced *by the traveler*. See, time dilation applies to the mobile part, so, if you could accelerate to 99.99999% light speed quickly (hundreds of Gs), the trip to proxima centauri could be less than a day ship time. So, it *would* be possible to both ship perishables, even fresh foods, and to have a constantly awake crew traveling from world to world. Although the crew would be time-hoppers, because the round trip would still be 10 years planetside.
That assumes that the problems of very near light-speed travel can be solved. Those are not trivial, the interstellar media is sparse, but converting all of it to something equivalent to hard ionizing radiation is a significant issue. That and a dust particle impact being equivalent in energy to an nuclear bomb present some pretty heavy shielding challenges.
There is also a place in some STL scenarios for less than fully capable colonies, mining outposts, exotic waste disposal, hazardous processes, etcetera. Those would need most things shipped in, so there would be the place for shipments of PS-200s.
You're right that there would probably still be a place for slower than light shipment unless the FTL tech is an amazing macguffin. The parallel being: We ship overnight mail by air, fresh fruit by truck, and coal by rail. The cost per kg to ship, versus the value of the item also matters. We generally ship containers of cell-phones by truck even though rail is cheaper, because the shipping cost is insignificant next to the cost of the cargo.
As for the lead-times, a lot of industrial activities involve pretty long lead-times. For example, oil exploration activities are decadal endeavors. It takes 10-20 years between opening a new oil lease and full production, more for offshore. Pipelines take decades at a minimum between construction start and flow initiation. It's a hurdle, but not a barrier. Also on the lead times, if there is a steady trade in any given thing, then the lead times kinda lose significance, if there's a shipload of einsteinium coming in from Betelegeuse every alternate week, and a shipload of aeroponic nutrients heading back out every week (backhauls tend to be 1/2 price), then it really doesn't matter whether the current shipment left Betelegeuse yesterday or 500 years ago. Then it becomes more a throttling issue and less an order filling issue.
There may even be a place for shipment of more basic goods in a simple slower-than-light scenario, for instance, a star that recently underwent a nova or supernova would be unlikely to be able to easily produce food, but it *would* have unusually high proportions of heavy elements, so it might well be worthwhile to send food and get back rare elements.
Slower than light interstellar empires do not figure to go well (plot bait!). Look at the difficulties that even localized empires have in earth history, without constant contact, intermixing, etcetera, the colony and the crown become "othered". The colony becomes very very irritable about paying taxes :P That isn't to say that future-types won't *try*, but they will most likely fail.
Hmm. That brings up the difficulties of slower-than-light interstellar *wars*. Those mean that there is an absolute certainty of the tactical situation changing *dramatically* between the orders and the execution. Send out a fleet to counter a rebellion in Epsilon Eridani and it's 10 years dead minimum before it gets there. That'd mean that in order to maintain anything but a completely voluntary coalition, the home system would have to keep a standing fleet big enough to defeat their largest vassal system and anything their vassal could conceivably build in the entire transit time. That would get pricey!
Re: Hmm...
February 7 2011, 17:50:58 UTC 10 years ago
True, time dilation can make more types of shipping feasible, where ships are subject to that. Certain types of FTL circumvent it, though, so that must be watched if those ships are still racking up years of travel time. "Faster" doesn't always mean "fast." I've written some poems about the effect of one-way time travel in FTL.
>>That assumes that the problems of very near light-speed travel can be solved. Those are not trivial, the interstellar media is sparse, but converting all of it to something equivalent to hard ionizing radiation is a significant issue. That and a dust particle impact being equivalent in energy to an nuclear bomb present some pretty heavy shielding challenges.<<
Yeah, you need either a scatter field or some epic ablative shielding well ahead of your ship. The problem of fuel weight is another issue, but I've heard some fascinating things about laser-powered starships.
>>The parallel being: We ship overnight mail by air, fresh fruit by truck, and coal by rail. The cost per kg to ship, versus the value of the item also matters. <<
Exactly!
In my main SF setting, there are different "bands" of FTL travel available, with varying speeds and risks and effects.
>>As for the lead-times, a lot of industrial activities involve pretty long lead-times. For example, oil exploration activities are decadal endeavors.<<
Come to think of it, the same is true of tree crops -- orchards, hardwood farms, etc. So these are good lines to explore. I don't know of anyone writing SF stories about trying to run a business under these circumstances; it could be interesting.
>>There may even be a place for shipment of more basic goods in a simple slower-than-light scenario, for instance, a star that recently underwent a nova or supernova would be unlikely to be able to easily produce food, but it *would* have unusually high proportions of heavy elements, so it might well be worthwhile to send food and get back rare elements. <<
Ah! I hadn't thought of that, but yeah, I think there are a few historic parallels for acquisition outposts.
>>Slower than light interstellar empires do not figure to go well (plot bait!). Look at the difficulties that even localized empires have in earth history, without constant contact, intermixing, etcetera, the colony and the crown become "othered". The colony becomes very very irritable about paying taxes :P That isn't to say that future-types won't *try*, but they will most likely fail. <<
Precisely. You're likely to start with scattered, independent settlements. However, if swifter travel becomes available, they may rejoin. Again, my main SF setting launched several waves of colonization (starting with true slowboats: generation ships and then sleeper ships, then later one-way jumpers) which were expected to be independent. Only later did they develop stardrives good enough to support galactic unity.
>>That brings up the difficulties of slower-than-light interstellar *wars*. Those mean that there is an absolute certainty of the tactical situation changing *dramatically* between the orders and the execution.<<
Now that has been explored fairly often in SF ...
>>That'd mean that in order to maintain anything but a completely voluntary coalition, the home system would have to keep a standing fleet big enough to defeat their largest vassal system and anything their vassal could conceivably build in the entire transit time. That would get pricey!<<
... but I don't recall any of those stories being written from the supply/logistics/economics perspective. Most focused on the strategic/tactical military challenges, though some of the more thorough treatments included a nod to material flow.