tiredMy thoughts? It'll be the same as whatever the historic equivalent was for that use-level of transportation. If slow and costly, expect valuable things that are difficult or impossible to produce locally. Spices, silk, gems, and artwork were all traded insanely long distances -- along with expert personnel. If transport moves faster and/or cheaper for some reason (say, wormholes or hyperspace) then we can begin to add bulkier commodities in approximate order of demand/difficulty. Since we live in the information age now, we should also count information as something to be traded, although it usually doesn't have to be shipped in hardcopy.
If people can move at all, then they will ship and trade things.
February 7 2011, 07:53:16 UTC 10 years ago
Well, unless we get a good working FTL transport, we're talking about multi-decadal shipping times (although there are a few stars within 10 LY+2 years acceleration/deceleration time), and this is completely ignoring the energy and industrial costs. That lets out *any* form of personal item shipment, So... No interstellar Ebay. We're talking *exclusively* corporate and government items.
The long shipping times also mean that there will most likely be no shipping of technological goods, because by the time they got there, they'd be obsolete (this clearly only applies between mature colonies). Furthermore, it means that there will be no shipping of anything perishable, so food delicacies are also unlikely (unless transportation at 99% light speed or better can be obtained at accelerations greater than 1g).
That pretty much leaves scarce raw materials/valuable minerals and things of that kidney. so.... Maybe Transuranics? Tritium? Noble gasses (we're coming up on some shortages of some of those in the next few decades)? Rare crystallines?
"payment" for the shipped items would be at least as complicated, the "negotiation" would have to be done in simple offer/acceptance format, and by the time the purchaser became aware that the offer had been accepted, the goods would be well under way, no opportunity to say "sorry, I have to cancel".
Furthermore, it would only be feasible with materials that are not only precious *now*, but with materials that you are absolutely certain will still be needful in the decades between request and delivery.
Caveat:
I am assuming much slower than light travel. If we develop FTL, then all bets are off.
Fun fact: Acceleration at 1g for 1 earth year brings you to light speed (well, 3% over, close enough).
Hmm...
February 7 2011, 08:20:00 UTC 10 years ago
That's a good start. However, just because a culture develops FTL travel, does not guarantee how "fast" it will be. Shipping times could be instant, fast, reasonable, slow, or glacial depending on the technology. It's also possible for more than one method or speed to be in use -- especially if the faster one(s) is more expensive or risky.
>>That lets out *any* form of personal item shipment, So... No interstellar Ebay. We're talking *exclusively* corporate and government items. <<
Fascinating! I can't think of a setting that relies heavily on that mode; I can only think of a few vaguely similar examples, and one of those was in a guidebook, not a novel. So I'd call this area wide open for exploitation by writers who want to tackle something different.
I like how your mind works in this area, by the way. You're picking up different threads than the usual.
>>The long shipping times also mean that there will most likely be no shipping of technological goods, because by the time they got there, they'd be obsolete (this clearly only applies between mature colonies). <<
Yeah, that presupposes that everyone is capable of producing and advancing their tech. That might not be everywhere, or every field of technology. Some things might require a massive tech base that only one or a few places could produce -- like, say, FTL drives.
>>Furthermore, it means that there will be no shipping of anything perishable, so food delicacies are also unlikely (unless transportation at 99% light speed or better can be obtained at accelerations greater than 1g). <<
Or unless we develop advanced preservation techniques. Some settings have a stasis field or cryogenics or other things that might affect what could be shipped. However, your point remains valid: shelf life must be considered.
>>That pretty much leaves scarce raw materials/valuable minerals and things of that kidney. so.... Maybe Transuranics? Tritium? Noble gasses (we're coming up on some shortages of some of those in the next few decades)? Rare crystallines? <<
Many SF futures predict long-distance shipping of crucial raw or processed materials. Look at all the trouble raised in Star Trek over dilithium.
>>"payment" for the shipped items would be at least as complicated, the "negotiation" would have to be done in simple offer/acceptance format, and by the time the purchaser became aware that the offer had been accepted, the goods would be well under way, no opportunity to say "sorry, I have to cancel".
Furthermore, it would only be feasible with materials that are not only precious *now*, but with materials that you are absolutely certain will still be needful in the decades between request and delivery. <<
Those are really good points too. I think I've only seen one brief mention of a scenario that would require an extremely long lead-time for products, and that was because they were grown in crystalline caves.
Ancient civilizations really struggled to keep their supply and communication lines open and functioning fast enough to maintain cohesion. With a stellar civilization, that would be a huge concern. You just highlighted some stuff that would make keeping the economy lit a real challenge, nevermind the government.
You should be writing fiction along these lines, if you haven't already tried it.
Re: Hmm...
February 7 2011, 11:21:03 UTC 10 years ago
One of the interesting things I ran across in looking up stuff for that reply was the time experienced *by the traveler*. See, time dilation applies to the mobile part, so, if you could accelerate to 99.99999% light speed quickly (hundreds of Gs), the trip to proxima centauri could be less than a day ship time. So, it *would* be possible to both ship perishables, even fresh foods, and to have a constantly awake crew traveling from world to world. Although the crew would be time-hoppers, because the round trip would still be 10 years planetside.
That assumes that the problems of very near light-speed travel can be solved. Those are not trivial, the interstellar media is sparse, but converting all of it to something equivalent to hard ionizing radiation is a significant issue. That and a dust particle impact being equivalent in energy to an nuclear bomb present some pretty heavy shielding challenges.
There is also a place in some STL scenarios for less than fully capable colonies, mining outposts, exotic waste disposal, hazardous processes, etcetera. Those would need most things shipped in, so there would be the place for shipments of PS-200s.
You're right that there would probably still be a place for slower than light shipment unless the FTL tech is an amazing macguffin. The parallel being: We ship overnight mail by air, fresh fruit by truck, and coal by rail. The cost per kg to ship, versus the value of the item also matters. We generally ship containers of cell-phones by truck even though rail is cheaper, because the shipping cost is insignificant next to the cost of the cargo.
As for the lead-times, a lot of industrial activities involve pretty long lead-times. For example, oil exploration activities are decadal endeavors. It takes 10-20 years between opening a new oil lease and full production, more for offshore. Pipelines take decades at a minimum between construction start and flow initiation. It's a hurdle, but not a barrier. Also on the lead times, if there is a steady trade in any given thing, then the lead times kinda lose significance, if there's a shipload of einsteinium coming in from Betelegeuse every alternate week, and a shipload of aeroponic nutrients heading back out every week (backhauls tend to be 1/2 price), then it really doesn't matter whether the current shipment left Betelegeuse yesterday or 500 years ago. Then it becomes more a throttling issue and less an order filling issue.
There may even be a place for shipment of more basic goods in a simple slower-than-light scenario, for instance, a star that recently underwent a nova or supernova would be unlikely to be able to easily produce food, but it *would* have unusually high proportions of heavy elements, so it might well be worthwhile to send food and get back rare elements.
Slower than light interstellar empires do not figure to go well (plot bait!). Look at the difficulties that even localized empires have in earth history, without constant contact, intermixing, etcetera, the colony and the crown become "othered". The colony becomes very very irritable about paying taxes :P That isn't to say that future-types won't *try*, but they will most likely fail.
Hmm. That brings up the difficulties of slower-than-light interstellar *wars*. Those mean that there is an absolute certainty of the tactical situation changing *dramatically* between the orders and the execution. Send out a fleet to counter a rebellion in Epsilon Eridani and it's 10 years dead minimum before it gets there. That'd mean that in order to maintain anything but a completely voluntary coalition, the home system would have to keep a standing fleet big enough to defeat their largest vassal system and anything their vassal could conceivably build in the entire transit time. That would get pricey!
Re: Hmm...
February 7 2011, 17:50:58 UTC 10 years ago
True, time dilation can make more types of shipping feasible, where ships are subject to that. Certain types of FTL circumvent it, though, so that must be watched if those ships are still racking up years of travel time. "Faster" doesn't always mean "fast." I've written some poems about the effect of one-way time travel in FTL.
>>That assumes that the problems of very near light-speed travel can be solved. Those are not trivial, the interstellar media is sparse, but converting all of it to something equivalent to hard ionizing radiation is a significant issue. That and a dust particle impact being equivalent in energy to an nuclear bomb present some pretty heavy shielding challenges.<<
Yeah, you need either a scatter field or some epic ablative shielding well ahead of your ship. The problem of fuel weight is another issue, but I've heard some fascinating things about laser-powered starships.
>>The parallel being: We ship overnight mail by air, fresh fruit by truck, and coal by rail. The cost per kg to ship, versus the value of the item also matters. <<
Exactly!
In my main SF setting, there are different "bands" of FTL travel available, with varying speeds and risks and effects.
>>As for the lead-times, a lot of industrial activities involve pretty long lead-times. For example, oil exploration activities are decadal endeavors.<<
Come to think of it, the same is true of tree crops -- orchards, hardwood farms, etc. So these are good lines to explore. I don't know of anyone writing SF stories about trying to run a business under these circumstances; it could be interesting.
>>There may even be a place for shipment of more basic goods in a simple slower-than-light scenario, for instance, a star that recently underwent a nova or supernova would be unlikely to be able to easily produce food, but it *would* have unusually high proportions of heavy elements, so it might well be worthwhile to send food and get back rare elements. <<
Ah! I hadn't thought of that, but yeah, I think there are a few historic parallels for acquisition outposts.
>>Slower than light interstellar empires do not figure to go well (plot bait!). Look at the difficulties that even localized empires have in earth history, without constant contact, intermixing, etcetera, the colony and the crown become "othered". The colony becomes very very irritable about paying taxes :P That isn't to say that future-types won't *try*, but they will most likely fail. <<
Precisely. You're likely to start with scattered, independent settlements. However, if swifter travel becomes available, they may rejoin. Again, my main SF setting launched several waves of colonization (starting with true slowboats: generation ships and then sleeper ships, then later one-way jumpers) which were expected to be independent. Only later did they develop stardrives good enough to support galactic unity.
>>That brings up the difficulties of slower-than-light interstellar *wars*. Those mean that there is an absolute certainty of the tactical situation changing *dramatically* between the orders and the execution.<<
Now that has been explored fairly often in SF ...
>>That'd mean that in order to maintain anything but a completely voluntary coalition, the home system would have to keep a standing fleet big enough to defeat their largest vassal system and anything their vassal could conceivably build in the entire transit time. That would get pricey!<<
... but I don't recall any of those stories being written from the supply/logistics/economics perspective. Most focused on the strategic/tactical military challenges, though some of the more thorough treatments included a nod to material flow.