Spring is running fast this year

>> Unless you walk round with eyes deliberately shut it is very difficult to miss signs of global warming.<<

I often see things and think, "How can people possibly NOT NOTICE this?" But then I remind myself that I live out in the country, am Pagan, read voraciously, garden, and watch wildlife. Many people do not enjoy this advantages. They are stuck in towns or cities where there is much less greenery and wildlife to observe, where they spend most of their time in controlled climate areas, and neither their livelihood nor their hobbies depend much if at all on the climate. That makes it easier to ignore -- and I believe this is part of the difficulty we have in convincing people that the problems are real and urgent. They're just too cut off.

>> Animals have, at least, the hope of moving,
unless, of course, their habitat is isolated from similar places.<<

This is a key risk in the current change that has not applied much to previous ones. Human activity has carved up habitat into small isolated chunks, making it difficult or impossible for species to shift at need. Species that live on mountains can move upward to cooler territory -- but as the Earth warms, the top bands fall off the top of the mountain, so that species living there will die.

>> And some plants manage to propigate beyand their normal habitat,
so they may adapt. But trees are at a disadvantage.
And if trees die out, so will a lot of species, animal and plant,
that depend on them.<<

Trees, like other plants, "migrate" by changing their seed dispersal. They sprout in areas newly welcoming and die where conditions are no longer suitable. Species that spread by wind (like maples and cottonwoods) or water (like coconuts and mangroves) have a big advantage. They may be able to keep up. Species whose seeds usually land nearby are at a disadvantage. This is important because the current changes are very fast when compared to previous changes in fossil/ice/other historic records. Scientists suspect that the current changes will move faster than many plants and animals can manage, causing severe extinctions.

>>So we'll see how it all turns out,
unless we're one of those species that falls through that adaptation safety net.<<

Humans, like rats, are extremely resilient. We can eat a wide variety of food, live in a wide variety of habitats, and deal with most challenges. We are extremely numerous. Our civilizations are much more vulnerable than our species; we have survived the loss of many. The main threats to our species include: mounting environmental toxins (see birth defect rates in Iraq), extreme damage to the biosphere potentially causing a major collapse (see historic Great Extinctions), and heat beyond our physical capacity to withstand (see projections of global warming re: uninhabitable zones). While it is unlikely that humans will be wiped out, it is still possible.

I was very surprised by the fireflies. They're out tonight too, and it's cool and drizzly.

I knew pikas were cool-climate creatures of the north or mountains, but I didn't know that their fault-tolerance for heat was that narrow. I'm always learning new things. Science just fascinates me.

That's useful to know. Where are you? About how late? Some places are not affected much or at all. Those that change are not all headed in the same direction. So I am interested in news from anywhere, really.

>> All you have to do is compare the gardening zone maps from 30 years ago to the current ones. Northern Indiana used to be solidly in Zone 4. Now it's Zone 5 - and the date after which frost is unheard of in Zone 5 has moved from May 15 to May 1. Fall is also later.<<

Yes, when I was younger, this part of central Illinois was Zone 5b. It is now Zone 6a. The USDA map is no longer very accurate, because they use an accounting system that downplays changes. (They don't want to "alarm" people.) The Arbor Foundation map, however, does show the changes more accurately. (They want people to choose tree species that will actually grow where planted.)

Arbor Day zone checker:
http://www.arborday.org/treeinfo/zonelookup.cfm
Arbor Day zone map:
http://www.arborday.org/media/zones.cfm
Map showing changes 1990-2006:
http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
Animation of the changes (note the biggest shifts toward the middle bands):
http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm

>> But that's not "scientific"; it's merely empirical. *sigh* <<

It's interesting that, in journalism, eyewitness reports are considered among the most valued input; while in science, they are among the least valued. "Hey, I think something might be wrong" will get your chestnuts out of the fire a great deal sooner than waiting for them to explode so you can measure the explosions.

I agree. I mean, sheesh, if you ripped out 60% of one section of a car, and 80% of another, and so on through the rest of the vehicle, would you actually expect the poor thing to keep running without a complaint? Of course not. But that's exactly what we're doing to the Earth's biosphere.

I observe everything. There is not a singular measure for spring, but a long string of things that happen, usually at a similar time and in a particular order. When things happen substantially early or late, or out of order, it gets my attention.

The small native bees and flies usually do much of the early pollination work. They appeared this year, but the honeybees did a lot more than usual. There is a lot more green fruit to show for that.